NFL Playoff Betting Strategy

After 6 months of grueling practices, fierce gridiron battles, and down-to-the-wire games, the National Football League stages its NFL playoffs. And the playoffs are quite a treat for football fans since players turn the intensity up a notch at the end of the season. The NFL playoffs are quite a treat for sports bettors too because these games represent a great opportunity to make big money. If you want to be one of the bettors who cashes in on the NFL playoffs, pay close attention to this advice.

Wild Card Games

The top two teams in the National Football League’s AFC and NFC conferences get bye’s to the second round. Meanwhile, the other four teams in both conferences must battle it out in what is known as the Wild Card games. And NFL Wild Card matchups are exactly as they sound….wild!

Favorites mean little in these games since the favorites are only 20-19-1 over the past 10 years in the Wild Card round. So you’re going to have to do a lot of research beyond whether or not a team is a favorite to find winning picks. One stat that might help you with the Wild Card rounds is with totals bets where teams have combined to hit the ‘under’ a large percentage of the time. In fact, the last 10 years have seen Wild Card teams hit go under 26 out of 40 games, which is 65% of the time!

Beyond Wild Card Games

Once you move past Wild Card games, the statistics are a little more predictable. Favorites tend to win a larger percentage of the time in the second round and beyond while covering the spread. Of course, that doesn’t mean you should totally ignore other statistics because they will definitely help you determine outcomes. Some of the things you need to look at before wagering on later playoff games include regular season record, rushing, passing, sacks, punts, points per play, and yards per play.

It’s Good to be Home

Another big determinant in playoff games is home field advantage. Sure NFL teams get a big boost from having the home field during the regular season, but playing at home is an even bigger advantage during the playoffs. Being at home means no traveling after an already tough season, extra motivation from a screaming home crowd, and a possible weather advantage.

The weather factor is huge too because teams that play in warm weather like the Miami Dolphins will no doubt have a much tougher time playing in a cold place like New England. Bookmakers normally don’t adjust the spread enough to account for home field advantage so you can definitely make some money with these wagers. In fact, home teams have covered the spread over 60% of the time in the past 10 seasons.

Momentum is Crucial

One factor that doesn’t show up in betting statistics is momentum. And momentum plays a big part in the NFL playoffs since hot teams that are really clicking can be a force to be reckoned with over the last three or four weeks of the season. Teams that have won several games in the weeks leading up to the playoffs are likely to carry their momentum into the playoffs.

But you also have to be careful when using momentum as a determinant since some teams have to play well just to get into the playoffs. For instance, if a team is5-7, and they go on to win their last four games to make the playoffs, they could be exhausted and really beat up going into a Wild Card game. Likewise, a team that wins its final four games to finish the regular season at 12-4 with a first round bye could be rusty after receiving a week off and lose its rhythm.

More Blowouts

It’s normally not a good idea to blow out your opponent during the NFL regular season since you might be seeing them later on in the playoffs. However, the NFL playoffs are one and done so no team wants to hold anything back or leave the game’s outcome to chance. With this being the case, coaches are more willing to leave their top players in the game, which results in more blowouts. So if you find a really good team that is only favored to win by a touchdown or so, they are very likely to cover the spread during a win.